NOM DE GUERRE 1:30 Haydock Back at 2.8 or more

Nom De Guerre was a very easy winner last time at Leicester, scoring by 24 lengths - it's easy to dismiss this sort of form by arguing that the opposition was weak, but I've learned over the years that wide margin winners should always be respected. Whatever the standard of the race, it takes a decent horse to run away and win by that sort of margin and bear in mind that the winner certainly won't have come under pressure - if you believe in the idea of a confidence booster for the horse, the easy win must be the best example. The form of his earlier second at Kempton also looks solid and I reckon he can cope with his penalty here - if he was in one of the big stables, he'd surely be a lot shorter in this race and on my tissue, he's a 6/4 chance. Main market rival Cryptic won last time at Wincanton, but he's dropping back from 2M 6F and he seemed to need all of that trip to beat Earth Planet, who did nothing for the form at Newbury this week.

GENTLEMANS DEAL 3:40 Lingfield Lay at 2.8 or less

Gentlemans Deal has a stellar record on the AW tracks, winning 7 out of out 8 starts - that sole defeat came over course and distance last month, when Grand Passion beat him a short head, with Millville the same distance back in third. On his previous visit to Lingfield, Gentlemans Deal just held of Grand Passion in the Winter Derby and clearly there's little between them. Those two races suggest to me that Gentlemans Deal isn't suited to the downhill run and short straight at Lingfield - he's a big long striding horse and has always looked unbeatable at Southwell. With another tactical race almost certain today and a tight finish highly likely, I can't see why you should back any of these at 7/4 or less.