BLU TEEN - 2:40 Market Rasen - Lay at 2.0 or less

Taking on short priced runners from the Paul Nicholls stable is likely to be a recurring theme in this column in the coming months - of course they win plenty of races, but there's no long term profit to be had in backing them at under the odds. Blu Teen won two very ordinary novice chases in the spring, jumping well on good ground round Chepstow and good to firm at Fakenham. The horses he beat have done nothing since to suggest the form was anything special. Blu Teen now tries a right-handed track for the first time over fences (last and UR in two tries r-handed over hurdles, although well clear when he did unseat) and he meets a better class of opponent in Crathorne (same official rating) and Prestbury Knight (stable in great form at Perth this week). He's a worthy favourite, but not an odds on shot in my view.

PROVISO - 3:10 Ascot - Back at 2.0 or more

The last eight runnings of this race have gone to fillies that won last time out and started at 5/1 or less here - this isn't a race for shock results. Provisio has a big reputation in France and her two performances to date have matched the hype, a facile maiden win followed by a defeat of the very useful Laureldean Gale with the pair will clear of the rest over 7F, form that looks the best fillies race run over 7F/1M to date. With the trip and ground conditions not a problem for her, I reckon she should be odds on here to beat her two Irish rivals. Soairse Abu has already run seven times, whch would make her a unique winner of this race, and I'm not at all convinced that this step up to 1M is in her favour, but even her form at shorter doesn't put her much in front of the best English fillies and that doesn't look good enough.